May 14, 2026filing
Q1 datacenter mix at 92%
Segment disclosure confirms the shift. Re-rated conviction +6.
NVDA 10-Q · p.12
Thesis
Your conviction, on the record.
A thesis isn't a paragraph you write once. It's a position you hold, revise, and defend. subThesis treats it that way — versioned, sourced, and accountable to the evidence.
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Version history
Look back at v3 of your thesis.
Every revision is kept. Open v1 and read what you believed the day you took the position. Open v3 and see what changed — and the evidence that moved you.
Nothing is overwritten. Your thinking is a record, not a draft you keep replacing.
thesis.subthesis
NVDA· $168.42thesis v3
Accelerated-compute demand stays supply-constrained through 2027.
Conviction
78 / 100
Hyperscaler capex guidance continues to outrun foundry capacity. Lead times on datacenter GPUs extended again this quarter.
changed in v3
Datacenter revenue mix rose to 92% — gaming is no longer material to the thesis.
Primary risk: a capex air-pocket if AI training ROI disappoints. See scenario branch capex-peak-2026.
Evidence
Every claim, anchored to a source.
A claim with no source is a guess. In subThesis, each line of your thesis links to the filing, transcript, or note it rests on — and agents flag the lines that don't, surfacing untested assumptions and unsourced claims as gaps to close.
Memos append over time into a permanent, citable record — never overwritten, always traceable back to where it came from, and written in plain, open Markdown you can take anywhere.
memos.subthesis
Memos
NVDA · append-only · 41 entries
May 02, 2026transcript
Supply commentary from earnings call
CFO: lead times "extended versus last quarter" — capacity still the binding constraint.
Q1 call transcript · 18:40
Apr 21, 2026note
Own read on hyperscaler capex
Cross-checked three cloud capex guides. All raised. Demand side intact.
Research note · my analysis
Timeline
Watch conviction build over time.
Each thesis version sits on the same axis as your trades, earnings, and agent findings. The shape of your conviction becomes something you can actually see.
When a position works — or doesn't — you can trace exactly how you got there.
timeline.subthesis
Research timeline · NVDA
past| nowforecast
Assumptions
v1v2v3
Evidence
10-Qcall10-Q
Decisions
BUYHOLD
Outcomes
confirmedcontradictedforecast
NovJanMarMayJulSep
Pan left to see the assumptions, evidence, and decisions that built conviction. Pan right to compare those calls against realized outcomes.
Stop relying on memory.
Six months from now, you won't remember why you sized the position the way you did. subThesis will. Request access to the private beta.
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