May 14, 2026filing
Q1 datacenter mix at 92%
Segment disclosure confirms the shift. Re-rated conviction +6.
NVDA 10-Q · p.12
Scenarios
Hold every future at once.
The future isn't one path. subThesis lets you branch your thesis into scenarios and carry each one with its own conviction — so you stress-test the downside without losing your base case.
Coming soon
Branches
Branch off your main thesis.
What if AI capex peaks in 2026? What if China demand drops 10%? Each question becomes a branch — a full scenario with its own price target and conviction level — and they run in parallel, each evolving on its own as evidence lands.
Your base case stays intact. The alternatives sit beside it, run and tested side by side, ready when the evidence turns.
scenarios.subthesis
Scenarios · NVDA
4 branches · 1 basemainBase case$210
Supply-constrained through 2027.
conviction
78primary
capex-peak-2026AI capex peaks 2026$132
Training ROI disappoints; orders soften.
conviction
41carried in parallel
china-demand-cutChina demand −10%$188
Export curbs tighten; mix absorbs most of it.
conviction
55carried in parallel
sovereign-buildoutSovereign AI buildout$256
National compute programs add a demand leg.
conviction
62carried in parallel
Interpretation
One event, read several ways.
A single earnings print can confirm one scenario and undercut another. subThesis lets each branch interpret the same event on its own terms.
You see, side by side, what a data point means for every future you're carrying.
memos.subthesis
Memos
NVDA · append-only · 41 entries
May 02, 2026transcript
Supply commentary from earnings call
CFO: lead times "extended versus last quarter" — capacity still the binding constraint.
Q1 call transcript · 18:40
Apr 21, 2026note
Own read on hyperscaler capex
Cross-checked three cloud capex guides. All raised. Demand side intact.
Research note · my analysis
Forecast
Pan into the future.
Each scenario projects forward on the same timeline as your past. Pan right and you see the path each branch implies — and the events that would tip you toward it.
Conviction stops being a single number. It becomes a map.
timeline.subthesis
Research timeline · NVDA
past| nowforecast
Assumptions
v1v2v3
Evidence
10-Qcall10-Q
Decisions
BUYHOLD
Outcomes
confirmedcontradictedforecast
NovJanMarMayJulSep
Pan left to see the assumptions, evidence, and decisions that built conviction. Pan right to compare those calls against realized outcomes.
Stop betting on one outcome.
Serious investors hold several futures at once. subThesis gives that way of thinking a structure. Request access to the private beta.
Coming soon
Private beta · by invitation